The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is embattled with uncertainty about its future.
Trailing behind the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in opinion polls, the CHP has failed to win a presidential election in the past two decades. Nowadays, it focuses on a new strategy to push for an early or by-election, but a fateful trial and a reported dissent in the party linked to that trial may prove a challenge for Türkiye’s oldest party.
Ahead of a hearing in May in a trial over alleged wrongdoings in an intraparty election in 2023, the party charts its future, which is now apparently stuck between a reported feud between two men. One is the chairperson, Özgür Özel, and the other is the prematurely announced future presidential candidate, Ekrem Imamoğlu. Former Istanbul Mayor Imamoğlu remains jailed and faces multiple corruption charges. Özel himself is at the heart of a trial over allegations of vote-buying in the 2023 election that brought him to power in the CHP.
May’s hearing in Ankara may lead to a verdict on the absolute nullification of the 2023 election. This means Özel will lose his seat. On the other hand, Imamoğlu, even if he is acquitted of corruption charges before the 2028 general election, remains ineligible to run for the presidency as a separate court verdict annulled his university diploma, a prerequisite for presidential candidates.
In the face of these developments, both men mull a future with room for their political ambitions. Dissidents in the party who spoke to the Sabah newspaper on Tuesday said May’s hearing will be decisive for the party, and they anticipated the removal of the Özel administration. They say Özel’s predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, will likely return to his post and “unite the party against those entangled in corruption,” referring to mayors and senior figures detained or arrested in the corruption investigations in the past two years.
The Sabah report says some 100 CHP lawmakers were already ready to support Kılıçdaroğlu if he were to be appointed as a trustee to the party, in the case of suspension of the Özel administration by the court verdict.
Özel and Imamoğlu, in the meantime, brace for multiple scenarios. The Sabah report says Imamoğlu favors establishing a new party if Özel is ejected from his seat and has considerable support. Yet, Özel is reportedly inclined to stay in the CHP, unless the party is “fully shut down.” Özel also plans to “resist” the nullification of his administration, like the party did when its Istanbul branch was suspended and appointed a trustee last year. Back then, CHP supporters tried to storm the party’s offices in Istanbul to prevent the trustee from taking over and confronted riot police deployed to the building. The party administration is expected to take the same stance again if Özel is suspended from office.
Encouraged by rare success in the municipal elections in 2024, the CHP also renewed its faith in winning a general election after a disastrous defeat to incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2023 elections. Özel has been pushing for an early election and consented to a by-election to fill the vacant seats in Parliament when the government shot down his hopes for a snap vote.
Özel on Tuesday challenged the government again to organize a by-election for Parliament. “Let’s hold elections in constituencies you won in the past,” he said, calling on the AK Party to take action. In remarks at the CHP’s parliamentary group meeting, hours after government ally Devlet Bahçeli ruled out an election of any kind before the normal schedule, Özel said that the government should not “dodge the ballot box.”
“If they don’t want an early election, they should accept a by-election. The Constitution allows it. If you won’t resort to tricks, we are ready to have at least 50 lawmakers resign,” he said, referring to a threshold where Parliament is required to hold a by-election to fill the seats vacated for various reasons between two legislative elections.
