Although Vladimir Putin welcomed Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, he tried to publicly express this satisfaction. However, both leaders clearly reiterated their intention to find solutions to the war in Ukraine.
Trump’s slogan “ending the war in 24 hours” was a dream and it seems; The two leaders make larger calculations behind the scenes.
Putin is trying to achieve diplomatic and psychological superiority while taking negotiations in order to weaken the US support to Ukraine and even end completely. Trump is trying to make an agreement with Ukraine through underground resources and to squeeze Europe in order to turn the process into an economic victory in favor of the United States.
In addition, Trump is now voting with Russia in the United Nations decisions. He criticizes Zelenskiy harshly and for the Kremlin, not just the word; It is considered great positions in psychological war.
Trump is almost the only leader who questioned the aid to Ukraine in the West, and this is worth gold for the Kremlin.
Trump’s rhetoric coincides with Moscow’s war propaganda. Trump’s calling the Ukrainian leader Zelenskiy “dictator”, Russia’s never opened the issue of war crimes and asking Russia to withdraw from the lands occupied by Russia provides a great advantage to the Kremlin at a possible peace table.
It seems that Putin has taught Trump’s unstable decisions in the past. He doesn’t trust Trump completely, but he wants to win everything he can win and he’s prepared for every scenario.
Putin’s dream: Armistice -looking surrender
A “peace” plan that Kremlin expects from Trump, which will bring a strategic victory to Russia. Pacific to the army of Ukraine with a temporary ceasefire, to break the ties with the West and to provide political influence to Russia within the country. In short, it is a complete win without war.
With all these approaches, the Kremlin offers cooperation with Trump on other fronts and offers Trump’s approach to Iran as an example.
However, according to Western experts; This strategy of Putin apparently partnership, in fact, is part of Russia’s strategy to divide the western block of the western block.
On the other hand, while Trump tries to disrupt the Russian-China-Iran rapprochement with the Kissenger approach, Putin does not turn back to China while blinking to the United States. On the contrary, he uses his relations with China as a bargaining power.
According to European countries, if a ceasefire is provided in this environment, this can turn into a process of armament and power collection for Putin. According to European military experts, this period, which seems to be peace, may be a preparatory phase for Russia’s second largest attack.
Trump’s ego and one -on -one effect
According to Western experts, the Kremlin mastered Trump’s use of weaknesses in one -on -one talks.
For example, as at the Helsinki summit in 2018, Trump listens to Putin, not his own intelligence, and wants to reuse this weakness for Moscow.
Trump’s claim that the 2020 elections were “stolen” due to balances within the United States strengthens the Kremlin’s hand.
Because such claims are used to legitimize Russia’s own reasons for war, and the Kremlin creates common points by supporting Trump’s personal agenda.
For this reason, as the parties mentioned, a possible Summit of Leaders in Saudi Arabia may turn into a table that Russia wants.
Conclusion
In the light of all these balances, although the balances appear clearly against them, there are still options for Ukraine to come out of the war with minimal damage.
If the support of European countries to Ukraine despite Trump, Putin’s gaining such a comfortable victory may not be finalized even if it has agreed with the United States. In this case, Russia may agree to a permanent ceasefire on the existing façade lines.
On the other hand, even if the sanctions are alleviated by the USA, Europe’s approach will not provide the comfort it wants to Russia.
Putin’s main goal is to limit the sovereignty of Ukraine, to divide the West and to re -accept Russia as a great force, and the victory in Putin’s head is a victory that will be won on the table, not on the front.
