The prices of gold, a go-to asset of safety in times of turmoil, have already surged in the first quarter of the year on the back of the growing uncertainty and turbulence caused by on-and-off tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Now, the leading Wall Street banks and brokerages predict gold could climb from its current level of around $3,200 per ounce to as much as $3,700 by the year-end, potentially even $4,000 by mid-2026.
Goldman Sachs has increased its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per troy ounce, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and heightened recession risks impacting ETF inflows.
The investment bank, whose previous year-end forecast was $3,300, said it expected central bank demand to average 80 tons per month, Reuters reported on Monday, up from its previous assumption of 70 tons and well above the pre-2022 baseline of 17 tons per month.
On Monday, gold hit a new peak of $3,245.75 an ounce despite the temporary reprieve seen in tariff exemptions for smartphones, laptops, semiconductors and other electronic products by the Trump administration.
Spot gold has continued its rally from last year, hitting multiple record highs and gaining more than 23% so far this year. Bullion breached $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday.
Rush toward safe havens intensified in the past month, while the euro has also quoted strongly against the greenback amid fears over recession this year and intensifying trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
“Gold has surged to unprecedented levels, breaking above $3,200/oz on 11 April – its 23rd record closing high of this year and our old base case target,” Swiss banking giant UBS said on April 11.
“Aside from safe-haven demand and tactical speculators’ positioning, we see signs of a more structural shift in gold allocations – for example, Beijing allowing insurance funds to invest in gold and central banks systematically raising gold’s share of total reserves,” it also said.
Moreover, the bank raised its gold price target to $3,500/oz across its forecast horizon, while lifting upside and downside targets by $300/oz to be $3,800/oz and $3,200/oz, respectively.
“Gold is an uncertain certainty amid Trump tariff turmoil,” said a commentary by Clyde Russell for Reuters – a view proving to be accurate, looking at an upward trajectory of the metal in the past couple of months.
