US President Donald Trump’s Russian policy during the election propaganda process, the eventful oval office meeting with Zelenskiy and almost all the conditions of Russia, despite the fact that Putin has not approved a cease -fire agreement, it is undoubtedly signals of a future that will change the fundamental of an atlantic balance.
Numerous expert processes in the world described the end of NATO with statements about NATO’s claim that the US will quit the European Command and the efforts of Europe’s “5-10-year-old plan that will replace the US in NATO”.
In summary; At the core of this unprecedented turmoil in transatlantic relations, the echoes of Ukrainian cease -fire negotiations, which seem to be a fundamental change in the US relations with Russia, lies.
So far the benefits of the negotiation process has been clearly in favor of Moscow. The Trump administration showed signs that Russia will effectively remove political isolation, and showed that it would give Russia significantly freedom during this negotiation compared to the pressure it applied to Ukraine.
However, despite the latest talks in Kiev’s thirty -day ceasefire, Moscow will only avoid attacking Ukraine’s electricity network.
This shows how distorted this process has become.
NATO’s Future for Europe
French President Emmanuel Macron, only one year before the Ukrainian war, “NATO’s brain death took place after the statement, once again the need for” strategic autonomy “of Europe, and Germany’s new prime minister Friedrich Merz’s time to be independent of the United States, such as the development of the development of the important way to solve the development of a way to solve the development of the developing. does not come.
In short, the speed of deciding that the future of the European allies in the face of the shock of the Trump administration to the NATO system is no longer next to the United States has been accepted as a bad sign for the future of the alliance.
If Washington continues to progress in its current orbit in transatlantic relationships, and Brussels, Berlin and Paris continue to act as they can do without the United States, the logical result will ultimately go out of lights on the NATO headquarters and the US European Command loses the cause of existence.
The Trump administration may realize that the gambling, in which the gambling it follows is not only about healing relations with Russia to eliminate stress points, including the war in Ukraine, it is not only about to improve relations with Russia, but also to change the dynamics of the Transanlantic alliance.
The main purpose of Trump’s strategy seems to be a distance between Moscow and Beijing; Thus, even if Washington implemented a successful “Kissinger-In-Reverse” strategy and completely removed Russia from China, at least this approach will prevent Putin from supporting Xi if the US-China conflict in Indo-Pacific.
Russia’s ability to maintain its moves against Europe, depends on the continuation of China’s support, which does not seem possible for him to continue his path in Ukraine without this support.
For; No matter how the ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine conclude, the economic weakness of Russia seems to make it necessary to remain in the same line as China.
CONCLUSION
In the last analysis, as a result of the ongoing negotiations on the termination of the war in Ukraine for Vladimir Putin, Russia will be concerned with how much freedom it can achieve, ie by the Trump administration, which of its first demands will be met or rejected.
Another question here is whether the American national security strategy can be reduced to a series of transactional agreements.
According to European countries; The US-European Alliance has entered the most difficult period of the last 80 years, which will determine the future of NATO and transatlantic relations.
At the same time, the European capitals, especially the European commission leaders, especially Berlin and Paris, have to demonstrate their clear plans for the future of a Europe broken from the United States.
It is already time for NATO to work on both sides of the Atlantic.
