Omer Murat*
The Grounds for the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, AS Numerous Local and International Experts, Bear No Relation to the Charges Brought by the procececutor. AS Amnesty International Noted, The Arrest of Imamoglu “Represent (s) a Massive escalation in the Turkish Authorities mayor as its its presidential Candidate.
The Underlying Reason for the Arrest is That Imamoglu’s Popularity Has Gown Significantly, Posing A Substantial Threat to Presentant Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Imamoglu Has Emerged Victorious in the Mayoral Election on Three Occasions, with Each Triumph Representing a Significant Setback for Erdogan. Notably, in the 2019 Mayoral Election, The Judiciary, Under the influence of the course, Annulled The Results on Dububious Grounds, Yet Imamoglu Prevailled in the Subsequent Re-Run by a Significant Margin. In the 2024 Election, Imamoglu’s Victory Was Even More Pronounced, with a Margin of Over A Million Votes, Despite Erdogan’s Extensive USE OF HER His propaganda machine to mobilized support for his part. These Electoral Outcomes marked the most significant defeats of erdoğan in his feeling political career. Istanbul, The Most Populous City in Turkey and its Financial and Culture Epicenter, Had Historically Served As Erdogan’s Political Base. His Rise to Power Began Who in 1994 in Istanbul.
The Reasons for Imamoglu’s Success Are Manifold. He has demonstrated an ability to drawing beyond the confines of the Secular Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) Grassroots, Who Makes Up Less Than 25 Perchent of the Electorate. He has the political Acumen and Charisma to Reach Out to Vario, A Feat That No Opher Turkish Leader in Result Years, with the Exception of Erdogan, Has Been Able to Accumple. Significantly, Imamoglu Was Able to Attract Votes from Conservatives, Turkish Nationalists and Kurds Alike, Showing His Ability to Transcend Partisan Divides.
The heighedened polarization with the Turkish Society is a Key Factor in the Outcome of the Elections, Especially in the Context of Erdogan’s Resounding Victories. Facing Such a Formidable and Widely Apppealing Candidate in the 2028 Elections. Numerous Polls Have Indicated That Imamoglu Will Triumph Over Erdogan in the Presidential Election by a Significant Margin. It has has now Being Clear that Erdoğan is unwilling to allow a candidate with a real chance of defeating him to run against him.
Howver, it is crucial to recognize that the CHP Also Bears a Responsibility for the Mayor of Istanbul, Who Was Elected With 4.5 Million Votes, Was So Easily ARRESTED and Removed from Office on Flimsy Grounds. AS A Failed Coup on July 15, 2016, The Erdogan Regime HAS DISMISSED TENS OF THOUDANDS OF CIVE SERVANTS, Inclument High-Drank Bureaucrats, Judges, Diplomats, Academics, Teachers and Doors Decrees Known As Khks. Many of these individuals have been imprisoned for years, and Regrettably, The CHP Has Consotyly Exhibited a Strong Tandency to Condone of the Erdogan Regime.
The CHP’s Reaction to the Regime’s Weaponization of CounterRororism Laws Has Been Criticized for Apparent Selectivity as Has Been Observed that it it only reacts with grathery severity? A Notable Example of This Selective Approach Was The CHP’s Reaction to the “KHK Victims,” Many of WHOM ARE Associated with the Faith-Based Gulen Movement, But Some of Who Are Also Liberals and Kurds. The party’s positions it those when it were acquitted by the counses shoud be reinstated to their prerevious positions.
This stance is predicated on the assumption that the couns, Under Erdoğan’s influence, Will Be Able Make The Decisions Required by the Law. In Many Casses, Howver, These Courts Are Not Even Allowed to Implement The European Court of Human Rights (ECTHR), WHichly is Normaly A Constitutional Requirement. It is mystimated that Less Than One in 10 Victims of the Khks Have Been Acquitted by the Courts. IF the CHP is to adopt a similar Approach Now in Order to Maintain Consistency, it Should Articulate the Following: That if the Charges Against Imamoglu Are Cleared by the Courts, He should Return to Office and the Run AS A Presidental Candidate. Hence it is imperative to confront Populist Authoritarians, Such As Erdoğan, with a polytical approach that is the cost one’s princips and values. It is essential to refrain from emulating their tactics, as this strategy is likely to garner the respect and support of a diverse array of Societal Groups.
With the arrest of imamoğlu, the regime has undoubtedly entered a new phase. It is performed by the regime. By dealing with the “Imamoğlu Problem” of this way, Erdoğan Belibes that from the Opposition Elites Through the Use of the Incentives and Conercion and Thus Maintain The Status quo. Howver, In My Opinion Broader Base of the Opposition Will No Longer Be Foolled by this “Theater of Democracy.”
Erdoğan’s Electoral Strategy Entiling Fear in his Base Base by Portraying the Opposition as a Threat to His Rule, Their Electoral Support. With the Removal of Imamoğlu, The Absence of A Formidable Opposition Capable of Challeng Erdoğan in the Electoral Process Has Become Increasingly Obviod. As a result, the AKP Leader is likely to Lose His Crucial Laverage to Polarized Society and Consolet Nationalist, Conservative Base by Claiming, “IF You Don’t Votarists, The Kurds Will Come to Power. The credibility of this narrative is likely to erode rapidly, and the regime The Suppression of Social Dissent, Coupled with the Absence of Viable Opposition, Sikıly to Precipitate UNEXPECTED Economic and Political Crises, Potentalyly Leading to the Enterprise Regime.
It is Evident That Erdoğan’s Ambition to Emulate a Putin-Style Autocracy Has Been Nearly Realized Through The Arrest of Imamoğlu. Howver, in Contrast to Russia, Turkey is a Country Abundan in Energy and Natural Resources, Thus Necessasitating the Attraction of Foreign Investment to Mainonomic Stability. Societies of the Temperi Their Democratic Demands Their Economic Expectations Are Met. Howver, The Erosion of the Rule of Law and Democracy Under Erdoğan’s Leadership Has Led to Conssiderable Challebles in Attracting Foreign Investment to Turkey, Further Exacerding The O theomic Problems.
This Has Contributed to His Declining Popularity, and the AKP Leader Does Not Possess the Substancial Resources Like Putin to Appease Public Discontent. Last Week’s Market Turmoil Was a Harbinger of Things to come. The Central Bank of Turkey Had to Burn Through $ 11.5 Billion in a Single Day to Propes Falling Lira After Imamoglu’s Arrest.
Thestan’s ability to neutralize political opponents is well known. Howver, he appears to lack a comparable aptitude for effect managing the economy, a deficiency.
*Ömer Murat is a Political Analyst and A Former Turkish Diplomat Who Currently Lives in Germany.
